TRANSNATIONAL THREATS AND THEIR IMPACT ON INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS TRANSNATIONAL THREATS
SUMMARY
Transnational threats refer to challenges that cross national borders and require coordinated international responses. These include terrorism, organized crime, cyberattacks, pandemics, human trafficking, environmental degradation, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Unlike traditional military threats, transnational threats are often non-state-driven, asymmetric, and unpredictable in nature.
Their impact on international relations is profound. They compel states to cooperate beyond conventional diplomatic boundaries, leading to the formation of regional and global alliances, such as the United Nations Counter-Terrorism Committee, INTERPOL, and the World Health Organization’s pandemic response framework. These threats have reshaped foreign policy priorities, enhanced the importance of intelligence sharing, and triggered the development of international legal frameworks.
Transnational threats challenge the sovereignty of states by requiring them to accept external oversight and coordination mechanisms. They also exacerbate tensions between states when responsibilities or threat perceptions differ, as seen in cyber espionage accusations or vaccine nationalism during pandemics. Ultimately, addressing transnational threats necessitates multilateralism, mutual trust, and adaptive global governance mechanisms.
INTRODUCTION
In an increasingly interconnected and globalized world, transnational threats have emerged as one of the most significant challenges to international peace, security, and stability. Unlike traditional threats confined within state borders or emanating from state actors, transnational threats transcend national boundaries, involve non-state actors, and often require complex, multilateral responses. These threats include terrorism, cybercrime, organized crime, pandemics, climate change, and the illegal trafficking of weapons, drugs, and people.
The evolution of these threats has redefined the landscape of international relations. States can no longer rely solely on unilateral or bilateral measures to ensure national security. Instead, they must engage in deeper cooperation with regional and global institutions, share intelligence, and harmonize policy responses. This shift has led to the creation of new international alliances and legal frameworks aimed at managing risks that affect global communities collectively.
As these threats grow in scale and complexity, they test the resilience of existing diplomatic norms and international institutions. Understanding the nature and implications of transnational threats is therefore essential for policymakers and scholars seeking to build a more secure and cooperative international system. This paper explores the key types of transnational threats and analyzes their impact on state behavior, sovereignty, and the broader international order.
ANALYSİS
Transnational threats pose multifaceted challenges to international relations, fundamentally altering traditional notions of sovereignty, security, and cooperation. Unlike conventional interstate conflicts, these threats—such as terrorism, cyber warfare, organized crime, pandemics, climate change, and mass migration—are often borderless, asymmetric, and largely driven by non-state actors. Consequently, they require collective international action and cross-border coordination, reshaping the way states interact in the global system.
One of the most prominent transnational threats is terrorism, which has catalyzed a paradigm shift in global security policies. The September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States marked a turning point, prompting the adoption of pre-emptive security doctrines and the establishment of international coalitions, such as NATO's operation in Afghanistan. In response, states increasingly relied on international intelligence sharing, military cooperation, and the harmonization of legal frameworks to combat global terrorism. For example, the UN Security Council Resolution 1373 mandated member states to criminalize terrorism financing and improve international cooperation.
However, differing geopolitical interests continue to undermine global efforts. The Syrian Civil War illustrates this, where major powers such as the U.S., Russia, Iran, and Turkey have supported opposing factions, thereby complicating international counterterrorism initiatives.
Cyber threats have emerged as a dominant transnational concern. Cyberattacks by state and non-state actors have targeted critical infrastructures, election systems, and financial institutions. For instance, the 2017 WannaCry ransomware attack, linked to North Korean hackers, disrupted services in over 150 countries, including hospitals in the UK. Similarly, Russia’s alleged interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential elections brought international attention to the vulnerability of democratic processes.
The blurred lines between military and civilian cyber targets complicate diplomacy and raise complex questions about international legal enforcement. While instruments such as the Budapest Convention on Cybercrime (2001) provide a basis for cooperation, its effectiveness is limited as countries like Russia and China have not ratified it, citing sovereignty concerns.
The COVID-19 pandemic exposed deep flaws in global health governance and demonstrated how unilateral national responses are insufficient in the face of global health emergencies. The initial delays by China in reporting the outbreak and the disjointed international response highlighted the need for greater transparency, early warning systems, and coordinated mechanisms. Institutions like the World Health Organization (WHO) played a central role but were also criticized for being overly influenced by powerful member states.
Initiatives like the Global Health Security Agenda (GHSA) aim to build international health capacity, but disparities in vaccine distribution, particularly between developed and developing countries (e.g., during the COVAX initiative), underscore persistent inequities.
Transnational organized crime—including drug trafficking, human smuggling, and arms dealing—erodes public trust, undermines legal systems, and threatens economic stability. Groups like Mexico's Sinaloa Cartel or Russia-based cybercriminal gangs generate billions through illicit activities, which often finance terrorism or insurgent groups, such as Hezbollah or ISIS.
Illicit financial flows, including money laundering and tax evasion, challenge financial transparency. Institutions like the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) work to combat these threats through blacklisting and regulatory frameworks, but enforcement remains uneven, especially in fragile states with weak institutions like Somalia or Venezuela.
Climate change represents one of the most pressing transnational threats. Rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and desertification have led to environmental displacement and resource conflicts. For example, Bangladesh is experiencing mass internal displacement due to flooding, while Lake Chad's shrinking waters have fueled tensions between Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, and Niger.
The Paris Agreement (2015) marked a significant multilateral effort to curb emissions, but countries differ vastly in their commitments. The U.S.'s withdrawal under the Trump administration (and subsequent re-entry under Biden) revealed how domestic politics can influence global environmental strategies.
Migration driven by conflict, economic collapse, or environmental degradation has reshaped political landscapes. The Syrian refugee crisis led to the displacement of over 6.5 million people, with over 1 million seeking asylum in Europe by 2015. The European Union's internal disputes—such as Hungary and Poland rejecting refugee quotas—highlight the fragmentation of collective responses and the tension between humanitarian obligations and national sovereignty.
Similarly, the U.S.-Mexico border crisis, fueled by violence and poverty in Central America, has intensified debates over border security, asylum rights, and bilateral cooperation.
While organizations such as the UN, WHO, and INTERPOL play essential roles in coordinating responses, their effectiveness is often limited by political divisions. For example, UN Security Council vetoes by permanent members have repeatedly blocked decisive action in conflicts like Syria and Ukraine.
The principle of state sovereignty remains a major barrier. International organizations often lack enforcement mechanisms to compel state compliance. This has led to calls for reforming international law, especially concerning responsibility to protect (R2P) and cross-border intervention in humanitarian crises.
Despite challenges, there are promising signs of multilateral cooperation. The Paris Climate Agreement, the Budapest Convention, and GHSA all reflect growing recognition of the interconnectedness of global risks. Multilateral initiatives like the Financial Action Task Force, Interpol's I-24/7 system, and WHO pandemic simulation exercises highlight efforts to build shared capacities.
For example, the African Union’s Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) monitors regional threats to prevent conflict. The ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance has been instrumental in regional disaster response.
CONCLUSION
Transnational threats—ranging from terrorism, cybercrime, and pandemics to climate change and organized crime—have fundamentally reshaped the dynamics of international relations. Unlike traditional state-centric security challenges, these threats transcend borders, requiring collective and coordinated responses that often blur the lines between domestic and foreign policy. As global interdependence deepens, no nation remains immune from the ripple effects of these threats, highlighting the limitations of unilateral action and the growing necessity for multilateral cooperation.
The impact of transnational threats on international relations is multifaceted. They have altered national security priorities, prompted the creation of new international institutions and alliances, and fostered shifts in diplomatic practices. Moreover, these threats often exacerbate geopolitical tensions, particularly when responses are politicized or unevenly implemented. At the same time, they also offer opportunities for countries to build trust and strengthen ties through shared interests and collaborative solutions.
In sum, addressing transnational threats requires a rethinking of traditional power structures and international norms. The future of global stability depends not only on the capabilities of states but also on their willingness to act in concert, share intelligence, harmonize legal frameworks, and invest in resilient global governance mechanisms. Only through such comprehensive and cooperative approaches can the international community hope to effectively mitigate the risks posed by these complex, evolving challenges.
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ЧИМНАЗ ИНТИГАМ кызы АЛЛАХВЕРДИЕВА
Магистр, Бакинский государственный университет
Электронная почта: [email protected]
ORCID ID: 0009-0002-2905-7388
Транснациональные угрозы и их влияние на международные отношения Транснациональные угрозы:
РЕЗЮМЕ
Транснациональные угрозы относятся к проблемам, которые пересекают национальные границы и требуют скоординированных международных ответов. К ним относятся терроризм, организованная преступность, кибератаки, пандемии, торговля людьми, ухудшение состояния окружающей среды и распространение оружия массового поражения. В отличие от традиционных военных угроз, транснациональные угрозы часто не являются государственными, асимметричными и непредсказуемыми по своей природе.
Их влияние на международные отношения огромно. Они заставляют государства сотрудничать за пределами обычных дипломатических границ, что приводит к формированию региональных и глобальных альянсов, таких как Контртеррористический комитет ООН, Интерпол и система реагирования на пандемию Всемирной организации здравоохранения. Эти угрозы изменили приоритеты внешней политики, повысили важность обмена разведданными и инициировали разработку международных правовых рамок.
Транснациональные угрозы бросают вызов суверенитету государств, требуя от них принятия механизмов внешнего надзора и координации. Они также усугубляют напряженность между государствами, когда обязанности или восприятие угроз различаются, как это видно на примере обвинений в кибершпионаже или вакцинного национализма во время пандемий. В конечном итоге, устранение транснациональных угроз требует многосторонности, взаимного доверия и адаптивных механизмов глобального управления.
CHIMNAZ INTIGAM gizi ALLAKHVERDIEVA
Magistr, Bakı Dövlət Universiteti
E-poçt: [email protected]
ORCID ID: 0009-0002-2905-7388
Transmilli təhlükələr və onların beynəlxalq münasibətlərə təsiri Transmilli təhlükələr:
XÜLASƏ
Transmilli təhlükələr milli sərhədləri aşan və əlaqələndirilmiş beynəlxalq cavab tədbirləri tələb edən çağırışlara aiddir. Bunlara terrorizm, mütəşəkkil cinayətkarlıq, kiberhücumlar, pandemiyalar, insan alveri, ətraf mühitin deqradasiyası və kütləvi qırğın silahlarının yayılması daxildir. Ənənəvi hərbi təhdidlərdən fərqli olaraq, transmilli təhlükələr çox vaxt qeyri-dövlət əsaslı, asimmetrik və gözlənilməz xarakter daşıyır.
Onların beynəlxalq münasibətlərə təsiri dərindir. Onlar dövlətləri adi diplomatik sərhədlərdən kənarda əməkdaşlığa məcbur edir, BMT-nin Terrorla Mübarizə Komitəsi, İNTERPOL və Ümumdünya Səhiyyə Təşkilatının pandemiyaya qarşı mübarizə çərçivəsi kimi regional və qlobal ittifaqların yaranmasına gətirib çıxarır. Bu təhdidlər xarici siyasət prioritetlərini yenidən formalaşdırıb, kəşfiyyat məlumatlarının mübadiləsinin əhəmiyyətini artırıb və beynəlxalq hüquqi çərçivələrin inkişafına təkan verib.
Transmilli təhlükələr dövlətlərdən kənar nəzarət və koordinasiya mexanizmlərini qəbul etməyi tələb etməklə onların suverenliyinə meydan oxuyur. Pandemiya zamanı kibercasusluq ittihamlarında və ya peyvənd millətçiliyində göründüyü kimi, məsuliyyətlər və ya təhlükə qavrayışları fərqli olduqda, onlar dövlətlər arasında gərginliyi artırır. Nəticə etibarı ilə transmilli təhdidlərin həlli çoxtərəflilik, qarşılıqlı etimad və adaptiv qlobal idarəetmə mexanizmlərini tələb edir.
